CASE FILE // BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS UNIT
See what your betting data is trying to tell you.
47 behavioral signals. Under 2 minutes. One forensic report.
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You know what happened.
You don't know why.
Why your $50 parlay turned into a $400 chase. Why you keep betting NBA props at -18% ROI.
BetAutopsy reads your history like a case file.
Your Tuesday night parlays cost $340 last quarter. Your stakes jump 1.8x after a loss. Specific patterns, specific dollars, specific fixes.
Import your betting history
CSV from FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, PrizePicks via Pikkit, screenshot, or paste. Takes 30 seconds.
draftkings_history_2024.csv
847 bets · 14 months
fanduel_export.csv
312 bets · 6 months
See a real autopsy report
304 bets. 3 months. 3 biases found. One change that could have stopped the biggest leak.
AUTOPSY REPORT #BA-LIVE
2025-11-01 TO 2026-01-30 · 304 SPECIMENS ANALYZED
▸ ABOUT THIS REPORT
01
Summary
The executive briefing
EXECUTIVE DIAGNOSIS
This bettor has real NFL spread instincts but NBA is bleeding them dry.
Emotions are creeping in
Process consistency is low
Moderate skill level. Some promising spots, but you're also making bets without clear edge.
Bankroll Health: Monitor
Your bankroll trajectory could use some adjustments. The recommendations below can help stabilize it.
BIGGEST RECOVERABLE LEAK
~$2,500-$4,500
Estimated from your single largest leak, via sticking to your profitable categories. Other leaks overlap it and are not additive. Verified net result: -$3,248.
02
Findings
Behavioral analysis and pattern detection
FINDINGS
The NFL parlay drag is the clearest example: NFL straight bets are actually in the green, but the NFL parlays are a significant drag pulling the whole sport toward breakeven. The NBA parlays follow the same script.
Recommended Action
The parlay habit isn't destroying you, but it's a consistent drain. Your straight bets are where your actual edge lives, so that's where your real money should go.
est. cost: ~$760
Bet sizing varies widely across the sample. The next source date returned to the earlier sizing range, but exposure still changes substantially from one bet to the next.
Recommended Action
Decide your standard bet size before you open the app, not in the moment. Keep it consistent throughout the session. Large stakes make any bad run more expensive, while a fixed size keeps exposure controlled.
est. cost: ~$79
The problem is the NBA ROI is the worst of any major sport here. Spreads, props, parlays, and moneylines in the NBA are all running negative, with NBA spreads and props being particularly rough.
Recommended Action
NBA is where your volume is highest and your results are worst. That's not a coincidence. Your NFL spread game is genuinely profitable, so shifting some of that NBA volume toward NFL straight bets is the smarter play with this sample.
est. cost: ~$2,900
SPORT-SPECIFIC FINDINGS
Your NFL straight bets are profitable, but NFL parlays are dragging your overall NFL ROI down.
NFL straight bets: +$497. NFL parlays (35%): $-522.
Recommended Action
Take your NFL reads and make them singles. Your NFL edge is in straight bets. Parlays are erasing it.
Heavy NBA player prop volume with negative returns. The prop market is sharp and the juice is high.
31% of NBA bets are props (55). Props ROI: -25.8%, net $-832.
Recommended Action
Cut NBA prop volume by at least 50%. Focus on spreads and totals where inefficiency is greater.
Multiple source dates contain 4 or more NBA bets, and that high-volume cohort lost money.
13 days with 4+ NBA bets. Combined: $-2210.
Recommended Action
Set a precommitted NBA volume limit before each slate and review the high-volume dates before adding more exposure.
Strategic Leaks
Categories where your ROI doesn't justify your volume.
Player props are a recreational trap in the NBA and this sample shows exactly why. There's a lot of LeBron, Doncic, Brunson, and Edwards prop action, often multiple props on the same player across different sessions. The lines on star player props are extremely sharp and the books price them well. Hitting them occasionally feels like skill but the volume at this loss rate is a real drain.
Suggestion
Treat NBA props as a small-stake side play, not a core betting category.
This is the most frustrating leak because the underlying NFL straight bet game is actually profitable. The parlays are taking a sport where you have a real edge and turning it into a losing category. The NFL parlay ROI is the worst of any sub-category in the data. You're essentially taxing your own good NFL handicapping by bundling it with other legs that dilute the edge.
Suggestion
Stop parlaying your NFL picks. The straight bet record in NFL spreads speaks for itself. Parlaying them doesn't multiply your edge, it multiplies the ways you can lose.
Multiple NBA spread bets appear on the same source dates, and this category lost money over the sample.
Suggestion
Set a precommitted NBA spread volume limit and review the high-volume dates before adding more exposure.
Six signals that reveal when emotions are driving your bets
Your losing sessions run much longer than your winning ones. You don't know when to stop.
Behavioral Patterns
Recurring habits we found in your betting. Some help you, some hurt you.
Thursday is the only day of the week running positive ROI with a win rate well above the overall average. This likely reflects Thursday Night Football action where the bettor has found a consistent angle. It's a genuine bright spot in the weekly pattern and stands out sharply against the rest of the week.
The picks show range: dogs, chalk, home and away, across multiple teams. This is the foundation of a real edge.
CLEAN FINDINGS
LOSS CHASING
Not detected
Your stake sizing stays steady across the bet sequence. 73% of bettors show measurable in-session stake escalation.
EMOTIONAL BETTING
Not detected
Session behavior stays disciplined under pressure. 61% of bettors show heated sessions exceeding 25% of total.
FAVORITE BIAS
Not detected
No systematic over-betting of favorites detected. 52% of bettors lean too heavily on chalk.
SUNK COST
Not detected
No pattern of chasing losing teams or players. 38% of bettors double down on losing selections.
Population benchmarks based on aggregate betting behavior research.
03
Your Data
Charts and evidence supporting the diagnosis
EXHIBITProfit/Loss Over Time
Track momentum shifts and identify when behavioral patterns impact results.
EXHIBITStake Size Timeline
How much you wagered on each bet over time. Red bars follow bets that eventually settled as losses in the source order; settlement timing is unavailable.
Normal Within 1hr after a bet later settled as a loss
ROI by Category
See where your edge lives and where it doesn't.
Timing Patterns
Your performance broken down by when you place bets. Reveals hidden patterns in your schedule.
Hour analysis uses 304 of 304 settled bets with a sourced clock. Clock time and timezone supplied by source
ROI by Day of Week
Time of Day Heatmap
Color intensity shows ROI. Size shows bet volume. Grey = no bets in that window.
Best Window
6pm
+54.6%
16 bets
Worst Window
12am
-100.0%
4 bets
Source Clock · 11pm-4:59am
46 bets
-75.3%
15% of bets with clock data
Odds Intelligence
How you perform at different price points, and whether you're finding real value or just getting lucky.
| Odds Range | Bets | Win Rate | Edge vs Odds | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moderate Favorite | 2 | 100% | +33.3pp | +50.0% |
| Slight Favorite | 160 | 50% | -3.3pp | -10.7% |
| Pick'em | 34 | 44% | -5.7pp | -10.3% |
| Slight Dog | 23 | 35% | -9.4pp | -38.1% |
| Longshot | 85 | 11% | -6.1pp | -30.2% |
Edge = your actual win rate minus the implied probability from the odds. Positive edge means you're beating the line at that price point.
Edge by Odds Range
Luck vs Skill
Running cold
You're winning less than expected. Could be bad luck, or the lines you're taking aren't as good as they look.
Best Odds Range
Slight Favorite
-3.3pp
160 bets
Your least-bad price point - still not a real edge.
Worst Odds Range
Slight Dog
-9.4pp
23 bets
The odds are beating you at this price point.
Session Analysis
A "session" is a group of bets placed close together in time, like a single night of betting.
Worst Session
Dec 12, 2025−$1,317
Stakes increased across this source-ordered session, and it finished with the worst net result in the sample. The next source date returned to the earlier sizing range.
Best Session
Nov 14, 2025+$330
This session shows the process working. It's the template.
2.88
avg bets / winning session
2.78
avg bets / losing session
Most sessions look disciplined, but 4 of 108 had heated moments worth reviewing.
108 sessions analyzed (3+ hour gap = new session)
Every betting session, detected and graded A through F
Most sessions look disciplined, but 4 of 108 had heated moments worth reviewing.
Best Session
+$329.82
Friday · 4 bets · 6:01 PM–10:43 PM
+ Stakes escalated more than 1.5x during the session
−$1,316.73
Friday · 10 bets · 7:35 PM–2:19 AM
− Stakes escalated more than 2x from start to finish
− Raised stakes after losing-result rows 5 times in one source-ordered session
− Highly inconsistent stake sizing within session
Every bet, classified by behavioral intent
Your emotional, chasing, and impulsive bets cost you an estimated $1,169.54. Disciplined bets returned -8.1% ROI.
31.6% of bets follow a disciplined process, but selections are still losing. The issue is bet selection, not process.
Worst Behavioral Bet
Stake stepped up 2.8x from the prior bet later settled as a loss
SESSION-001 · Grade D
Most Disciplined Bet
Held stake near the median following a prior row later settled as a loss
SESSION-013 · Grade A
Edge Profile
Where you have a statistical advantage (edges) vs where you're losing money (leaks).
Below average. Focus volume on your 1-2 profitable areas.
Based on ROI, category-level consistency, odds calibration, and betting discipline.
Profitable Areas
- NFL Spread· medium
60 bets
+7.7%
- NFL Moneyline· low
14 bets
+3.1%
Unprofitable Areas
- NBA Spread· −$1,382.17
55 bets
-26.4%
- NBA Prop· −$831.7
55 bets
-25.8%
- NFL Parlay· −$522
40 bets
-38.7%
- NBA Parlay· −$242
45 bets
-20.5%
- NHL Spread· −$204
7 bets
-44.6%
Reallocation
Your NFL straight bet game is the foundation to build on. NFL spreads and NFL moneylines are both in the green, which means your process for handicapping NFL games is working. The move is to protect that edge by keeping those bets straight and not bundling them into parlays that dilute the result. On the NBA side, the volume is too high relative to the results. NHL is a small sample but the spread results are ugly. Either find a specific angle there or leave it alone.
04
What It Costs
The dollar impact of your behavioral leaks
Leak Prioritizer
Biggest Recoverable Leak
~$2,500-$4,500
Your single largest recoverable leak, via sticking to your profitable categories. Leaks below are ranked by impact.
Estimates. Leaks overlap each other and are not additive.
Fix
NBA is where your volume is highest and your results are worst. That's not a coincidence. Your NFL spread game is genuinely profitable, so shifting some of that NBA volume toward NFL straight bets is the smarter play with this sample.
Multiple NBA spread bets appear on the same source dates, and this category lost money over the sample.
Fix
Set a precommitted NBA spread volume limit and review the high-volume dates before adding more exposure.
Player props are a recreational trap in the NBA and this sample shows exactly why. There's a lot of LeBron, Doncic, Brunson, and Edwards prop action, often multiple props on the same player across different sessions. The lines on star player props are extremely sharp and the books price them well. Hitting them occasionally feels like skill but the volume at this loss rate is a real drain.
Fix
Treat NBA props as a small-stake side play, not a core betting category.
Fix
The parlay habit isn't destroying you, but it's a consistent drain. Your straight bets are where your actual edge lives, so that's where your real money should go.
Fix
Decide your standard bet size before you open the app, not in the moment. Keep it consistent throughout the session. Large stakes make any bad run more expensive, while a fixed size keeps exposure controlled.
What-If Simulator
Counterfactual scenarios calculated from your actual bet data.
Flat-staked at $65 on every bet
Actual
$-3,248
If fixed
$-3,169
Only bet your profitable sports/types
Actual
$-3,248
If fixed
+$497
05
Protocol
Your personalized action plan
CONTROL SYSTEM
Your report should end in operating rules, not vague advice.
No single bet can exceed $90 until your next report.
Heavy Parlay Tendency
The NFL parlay drag is the clearest example: NFL straight bets are actually in the green, but the NFL parlays are a significant drag pulling the whole sport toward breakeven.
28% parlays, parlay ROI: -30.
Stake Volatility
Bet sizing varies widely across the sample.
Bet sizes range from $15 to $450 (avg $70).
Heated session relapse
You logged 4 heated sessions. Those are the moments your control system needs to treat differently.
Most sessions look disciplined, but 4 of 108 had heated moments worth reviewing.
HARD RULES
No single bet can exceed $90 until your next report.
A fixed ceiling keeps every stake within the engine-derived limit until the next report.
Evidence: Stake Volatility qualified across 304 bets; average stake was $70.
Sizing discipline
COOLDOWNS
Next-day lockout after a heated session
A next-day lockout adds friction after a heated session. This is a harm-reduction control, not a claim of predicted profit.
24 hours
RELAPSE TRIGGERS
A higher-stake decision following a known loss
Returning to the same leaking category under stress
PRESCRIBED PROTOCOL
You have a real edge in NFL spreads and a real leak in NBA bets. The fix isn't complicated: bet less NBA and more NFL straight bets. If it's the latter, pass. Your Thursday and weekend NFL spread game is where your instincts are sharpest. Trust that and let it carry more of the load. Excluding the flagged cohort improves historical P&L by ~$2,900.
Discipline Score
34/100Measures how consistently you're building better betting habits: tracking, sizing, emotional control, and strategic focus.
Tracking
Sizing
Control
Strategy
Weakest area: Tracking (3/25). Set your bankroll and keep your review habit consistent so the control system has current data to work with.
Your Rules
No single bet can exceed $90 until your next report.
A fixed ceiling keeps every stake within the engine-derived limit until the next report.
Based on: Sizing discipline
YOUR 3 MOVES
STOP
• NFL parlay
• NBA spread
START
• More NFL spread
• More NFL moneyline
• Thursday Sharp Instinct
CONTINUE
• Flat staking after losses
• Session control
What happens next?
Run another autopsy in 2-4 weeks to see if your behavioral patterns are improving. Your scores update every time.
This is a sample. Yours will be even more personal.
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